A Strait of Hormuz blockade would trigger a brutal European energy crisis: 20% of global oil and 20% of global LNG transit through this strategic chokepoint. Beyond the general geopolitical shock already covered in our comprehensive Hormuz resilience guide, this article delivers a plug-and-play BCM scenario for your continuity plan, including recovery objective recalibration and a tabletop exercise template.
Difference vs a generic shortage scenario
Standard BCM scenarios treat fuel shortages as a one-off operational issue (see fuel shortage 10 steps). A Hormuz crisis is different:
- Prolonged duration (60–180 days vs 7–14 days for a refinery strike),
- Price shock (Brent +60% to +120% within days),
- Cascading effects on electricity (gas CCGT plants represent 20% of EU mix), data centers (PUE and energy costs ×2), logistics (B2B diesel rationing), energy-intensive industries (steel, chemicals, cement, paper, glass).
The BCM scenario must therefore handle simultaneously: physical shortage + price shock + degradation of related services.
The 5-phase BCM scenario
Phase 1 — Pre-event (geopolitical alert, 0–7 days)
Triggers: military event in the Persian Gulf, escalated US sanctions, large-scale Iranian naval exercise. Actions:
- Activate the geopolitical watch cell (cross-functional team — procurement / security / executive).
- Pre-compute the strategic fuel stock needed by your profile (fleet, generators, process heating).
- Audit the energy supplier CMDB: which contracts have force majeure clauses? Which have Brent-indexed vs fixed pricing?
- Prepare communication plans (customers, employees, media).
Phase 2 — Event onset (D0 to D+14)
The shock materializes: prices spike, first delivery interruptions, market panic. BCM actions:
- Activate the energy plan: switch to internal rationing mode (limited heating, reduced business travel, expanded remote work).
- Recalibrate RTO/RPO of on-prem applications: if your data centers run on gas, the risk of pricing or physical outage rises. See RTO vs RPO.
- Trigger spot contracts secured in phase 1.
- Notify CSIRT (e.g. ANSSI in France, CCB in Belgium) if you are a NIS2 essential or important entity and your service is degraded. See NIS2 24/72/1m.
Phase 3 — Crisis peak (D+14 to D+60)
Shortage entrenched. BCM actions:
- Daily crisis cell (15 min, 6 PM) with energy dashboard, site status, delivery delays.
- Graduated shutdown plan for non-critical activities (BIA-driven prioritization).
- Energy mutualization with neighboring actors (shared generators, joint employee transport).
- Customer contract renegotiation: SLAs temporarily suspended, force majeure invoked when justified.
Phase 4 — Stabilization (D+60 to D+150)
Market adapts: new maritime routes (Cape of Good Hope), energy substitution (coal, nuclear, renewables), compressed demand. BCM actions:
- Gradual exit from crisis mode.
- Financial loss audit (insurance recovery, government CatNat scheme, state support).
- Risk cartography update: which suppliers reacted poorly? Which over-performed?
Phase 5 — Lessons learned (D+150 and beyond)
Structured AAR. Actions:
- Function-by-function debrief (procurement, finance, HR, IT, operations) consolidated.
- Update BCP/DRP/CCP plans with the lessons.
- Resilience investment plan: solar self-consumption, long-term indexed contracts, permanent strategic stocks.
RTO/RPO recalibration in energy crisis mode
Your nominal targets (RTO 4 h, RPO 15 min) may no longer be sustainable if your data centers, cloud providers or supply chain are degraded. Establish ahead-of-time a recalibration matrix:
| Critical function | Nominal RTO | Crisis RTO | Justification |
|---|---|---|---|
| ERP / Finance | 4 h | 8 h | Cloud DC dependency, 1 working day degradation acceptable |
| E-commerce site | 1 h | 24 h | Non-vital, can switch to "maintenance" mode |
| Manufacturing | 2 h | 24 h | If gas rationing, gradual shutdown acceptable |
| Payroll | 24 h | 5 d | Possible deferral with employee reps' agreement |
| Crisis cell | < 15 min | < 15 min | Unchanged, in fact reinforced |
See our RTO vs RPO 2026 guide for the full method.
Tabletop exercise template "Hormuz energy"
Format: 2 hours with 6 to 12 participants (CEO, CFO, CIO, CHRO, CPO, Security, Comms, BCM Manager).
T+0: Iranian drone strike announced on 2 LNG carriers in the strait. Brent at $105. Media on alert.
T+30 min: First gas supplier announces a 14-day delay on the next delivery. Your largest customer requests written continuity guarantees.
T+45 min: Prefect calls to activate a regional energy mutualization plan. You must designate a liaison in 30 min.
T+1 h: 4-hour preventive electrical cutoff announced by the grid for industrial priority level 3 (you are in scope).
T+1 h 30 min: A union threatens strike action over forced remote work. Media starts publishing.
T+2 h: Collective debrief. Which arbitrages were taken? Which processes were missing? Which BCM artifacts would have allowed faster response?
For 30 more ready-to-use scenarios, see 10 crisis exercise scenarios.
How to automate this scenario in ResiPlan
The Crisis Gaming module in ResiPlan ships with the "Hormuz Energy Crisis" scenario, ready to instantiate in 1 click. Event injection every 5 min over 2 h, automatic AI scoring, AAR generated on exit. See /features/crisis-gaming and /features/dependencies-simulator.
Try the Hormuz simulator for free — 15 min, no signup.